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| glossary:raven_paradox [15.04.26, 19:45:25] – [Description] sascha | glossary:raven_paradox [15.04.26, 19:46:47] (current) – [Bayesian response] sascha |
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| ==== Bayesian response ==== | ==== Bayesian response ==== |
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| A well-known counterargument to Hempel's paradox points out that although the two statements are //logically equivalent,// they refer to different-sized reference classes ([[extension|extensions]]), which makes the sample size relevant. | A well-known counterargument to this paradox points out that although the two statements are //logically equivalent,// they refer to different-sized reference classes ([[extension|extensions]]), which makes the sample size relevant. |
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| In other words, one can concede that the sighting of //non-black non-ravens// does indeed support the statement "All ravens are black", but given the vastly greater number of non-ravens in the universe compared to the relatively small number of ravens, this support is //infinitesimally small,// meaning that the relevance of such a sighting is, in fact, practically negligible. | In other words, one can concede that the sighting of //non-black non-ravens// does indeed support the statement "All ravens are black", but given the vastly greater number of non-ravens in the universe compared to the relatively small number of ravens, this support is //infinitesimally small,// meaning that the relevance of such a sighting is, in fact, practically negligible. |
