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| glossary:raven_paradox [15.04.26, 19:46:47] – [Bayesian response] sascha | glossary:raven_paradox [02.06.26, 18:40:40] (current) – sascha |
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| Another important point that is easily overlooked: in fact, //not all// ravens are black! As well as rare [[wp>Albinism|albino]] varieties, there are also individuals that, for various reasons, have plumage that is rather grey or reddish-brown. These are rare exceptions, but if we are to apply a //strict// interpretation of logic, then a //single counterexample// is enough to disprove the universal statement((It becomes even more complex when we do not refer to "raven" specifically as the [[wp>Common raven|common raven]] (<i :la>Corvus corax</i> ), but to the //family of ravens// (corvids) in general. Some members of this family – such as the [[wp>Eurasian jay|Eurasian jay]] – even have a rather strikingly colourful plumage!)). | Another important point that is easily overlooked: in fact, //not all// ravens are black! As well as rare [[wp>Albinism|albino]] varieties, there are also individuals that, for various reasons, have plumage that is rather grey or reddish-brown. These are rare exceptions, but if we are to apply a //strict// interpretation of logic, then a //single counterexample// is enough to disprove the universal statement((It becomes even more complex when we do not refer to "raven" specifically as the [[wp>Common raven|common raven]] (<i :la>Corvus corax</i> ), but to the //family of ravens// (corvids) in general. Some members of this family – such as the [[wp>Eurasian jay|Eurasian jay]] – even have a rather strikingly colourful plumage!)). |
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| At the same time, however, we can see from well-documented logical fallacies (see, for example, the [[logic:induction:eliminative_induction|fallacy of eliminative induction]]) that methods of logic which work well //within// formal systems can fail in the face of the complexity of reality if they are applied to the latter uncritically. It is quite conceivable that Hempel has "merely" found a good example of a similar problem here. | At the same time, however, we can see from well-documented logical fallacies (see, for example, the [[knowledge:eliminative_induction|fallacy of eliminative induction]]) that methods of logic which work well //within// formal systems can fail in the face of the complexity of reality if they are applied to the latter uncritically. It is quite conceivable that Hempel has "merely" found a good example of a similar problem here. |
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| It would thus be worth considering, to say the least, whether an overly strict application of logic is really the right approach in such cases. At the very least in real-life situations – that is, outside of thought experiments – one should adopt a pragmatic approach and take the complexity of the situation into account right from the initial statement. A formulation such as: "Ravens are //typically// black" would, in this specific case, not only describe reality more accurately, but also eliminate the temptation to apply methods of propositional logic outside their scope of application, where they can lead to unexpected (and possibly unrealistic) results. | It would thus be worth considering, to say the least, whether an overly strict application of logic is really the right approach in such cases. At the very least in real-life situations – that is, outside of thought experiments – one should adopt a pragmatic approach and take the complexity of the situation into account right from the initial statement. A formulation such as: "Ravens are //typically// black" would, in this specific case, not only describe reality more accurately, but also eliminate the temptation to apply methods of propositional logic outside their scope of application, where they can lead to unexpected (and possibly unrealistic) results. |
| ===== See also ===== | ===== See also ===== |
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| * [[logic:induction:eliminative_induction|Fallacy of eliminative induction]] – incorrect application of an inductive method | * [[knowledge:eliminative_induction|Fallacy of eliminative induction]] – incorrect application of an inductive method |
| * [[logic:formal_fallacies:exclusive_premises|Fallacy of exclusive premises]] – a formal fallacy in syllogistic logic | * [[logic:formal_fallacies:exclusive_premises|Fallacy of exclusive premises]] – a formal fallacy in syllogistic logic |
| * [[vacuous_truth|Vacuous truth]] – a logically //true// statement that has no informative value | * [[vacuous_truth|Vacuous truth]] – a logically //true// statement that has no informative value |
