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| glossary:causality [15.09.26, 08:54:12] – sascha | glossary:causality [17.09.26, 21:18:19] (current) – sascha |
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| **Note:** The term "causality" describes a complex concept that has been the subject of controversy in philosophy and science, litterally for millennia. It would go far beyond the scope and possibilities of this site to present the topic or the controversies in a way that is fair to their complexities. The following can therefore not be more than a first approach to the subject. | **Note:** The term "causality" describes a complex concept that has been the subject of controversy in philosophy and science, literally for millennia. It would go far beyond the scope and possibilities of this site to present the topic or the controversies in a way that is fair to their complexities. The following can therefore not be more than a first approach to the subject. |
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| - 𝐁 causes 𝚨 (//reverse// causal relationship). | - 𝐁 causes 𝚨 (//reverse// causal relationship). |
| - A third event 𝐂 causes both 𝚨 and 𝐁 (//external// causal relationship). | - A third event 𝐂 causes both 𝚨 and 𝐁 (//external// causal relationship). |
| - 𝚨 causes other events: e.g. 𝐂, 𝐃, etc, which in turn cause 𝐁 (//indirect// causal relationship). | - 𝚨 causes other events: e.g. 𝐂, 𝐃, etc., which in turn cause 𝐁 (//indirect// causal relationship). |
| - 𝚨 and 𝐁 are //not// causally connected, but only occur together by chance (<span maniculus "see:"></span>[[:mathematics:statistics:misinterpretations:spurious correlation|spurious correlation]]). | - 𝚨 and 𝐁 are //not// causally connected, but only occur together by chance (<span maniculus "see:"></span>[[:mathematics:statistics:misinterpretations:spurious correlation|spurious correlation]]). |
| - 𝚨 and/or 𝐁 are observational errors and at least one of the phenomena does not occur at all in the form described (e.g. <span maniculus "see:"></span>[[:psychology:kognitive_biases:frequency_illusion|frequency illusion]], [[:mathematics:statistics:misinterpretations:base-rate fallacy|base-rate fallacy]], etc.) | - 𝚨 and/or 𝐁 are observational errors and at least one of the phenomena does not occur at all in the form described (e.g. <span maniculus "see:"></span>[[:psychology:kognitive_biases:frequency_illusion|frequency illusion]], [[:mathematics:statistics:misinterpretations:base-rate fallacy|base-rate fallacy]], etc.) |
| - A **high correlation** of the properties. | - A **high correlation** of the properties. |
| - A **plausible mechanism** of effect. | - A **plausible mechanism** of effect. |
| - A comprehensible **chronological sequence** of events. | - A clear **temporal priority**: the cause must precede the effect. |
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| Just to illustrate the problems that can still arise from a naive application of these criteria, one might reflect on the saying that the cock thinks the sun rises //because// of his crowing. | Just to illustrate the problems that can still arise from a naive application of these criteria, one might reflect on the saying that the cock thinks the sun rises //because// of his crowing. |
| That’s not a major problem if it’s "only" a matter of potentially bruised egos in the chicken coop. But it shows that a general theory of causality would have to be far more complex than one might initially expect. | That’s not a major problem if it’s "only" a matter of potentially bruised egos in the chicken coop. But it shows that a general theory of causality would have to be far more complex than one might initially expect. |
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| | <div info>**Note:** A useful additional test is to ask the //counterfactual// question: “Would 𝐁 still have happened if 𝚨 had not occurred?” If the answer is "yes, almost certainly" – then 𝚨 was likely not the cause of 𝐁 but merely coincident with it. (Example: "Would the sun still rise if the rooster stayed silent?" Obviously yes – so the crowing is not the cause.)</div> |
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| ==== Strict direction of causality ==== | ==== Strict direction of causality ==== |
