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| knowledge:sherlock-holmes [02.06.26, 18:41:38] – sascha | knowledge:sherlock-holmes [01.08.26, 16:00:00] (current) – sascha |
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| The underlying //fallacy// here is a confusion of the [[glossary:abduction|abductive]] method (specifically a method called “eliminative induction”) with a [[glossary:deduction|deduction]], and as a consequence, ignoring the level of //uncertainty// that this method entails. | The underlying //fallacy// here is a confusion of the [[glossary:abduction|abductive]] method (specifically a method called “eliminative induction”) with a [[glossary:deduction|deduction]], and as a consequence, ignoring the level of //uncertainty// that this method entails. |
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| The way that Sherlock-Homes’ method is stated, it can be paraphrased as follows: | The way that Sherlock-Holmes’ method is stated, it can be paraphrased as follows: |
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| > Either ''A'', or ''B'', etc. … or ''N''. | > Either ''A'', or ''B'', etc. … or ''N''. |
| > <span conclusio>Therefore: <u questionable>''N'' must be //true//</u>.</span> | > <span conclusio>Therefore: <u questionable>''N'' must be //true//</u>.</span> |
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| This method, which //can be// a valid approach under //certain// circumstances, particularly within //formal systems// such as mathematics. However, comes up against its limits in more complex situations (such as in [[wp>Forensic science|forensics]]), where the number of //possible// explanations is practically //unlimited// and no option can ever be ruled out with //complete certainty//. | This method //can// be a valid approach under certain circumstances, particularly within formal systems such as mathematics. However, it comes up against its limits limits in more complex situations (such as in [[wp>Forensic science|forensics]]), where the number of //possible// explanations is practically //unlimited// and no option can ever be ruled out with //complete certainty//. |
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| And indeed, the hero of the aforementioned novels uses almost exclusively [[glossary:abduction|abductive]] reasoning to solve the cases, a form of reasoning that does not fulfil the formal requirements of such a rigid methodology. | And indeed, the hero of the aforementioned novels uses almost exclusively [[glossary:abduction|abductive]] reasoning to solve the cases, a form of reasoning that does not fulfil the formal requirements of such a rigid methodology. |
