====== Ecological fallacy ======

Describes a //fallacious// inference in which a statistical characteristic is inadmissibly transferred to a level of [[glossary:aggregation_statistics|aggregation]] lower than that which it actually describes.

This may, for example, take the form of a (faulty) [[glossary:statistical_syllogism|statistical syllogism]], as in this example:

> Most people from Scandinavia are blond.
> Björn comes from Scandinavia.
> <s conclusio invalid "invalid conclusion">Therefore: Björn is blond.</s>

Of course, we don’t know whether Björn isn’t one of the few none-blond Scandinavians, so we can not draw such a conclusion.

===== Other names =====

  * Ecological (inference) fallacy
  * Population fallacy

<aside info>
**Note:** The term “ecological” is in this context only indirectly related to our modern understanding of “related to the natural environment”. Rather it is derived from the ancient Greek “<i :grc-Latn>oíkos</i>” [<span :grc>οἶκος</span>], which can be translated as “household” or perhaps even more specifically as “community living together” (though in modern Greek it is closer to the English word “house”). Also other English words starting with “eco-” are derived from this root, including “economy” or even our modern meaning of “ecology”.
</aside>

===== Description =====

Statistical indicators are always simplifications of the underlying data. When complex issues are reduced to one or a few key figures, they are easier to understand, communicate and compare. At the same time, however, we also lose information, especially about the data available on individuals. 

For example, a city’s //crime rate// can be a useful metric for tracking developments over time or to compare it with other cities. It is however not suitable for infering information about //individuals// or //subgroups// (e.g. neighbourhoods) from this city.

The fallacy consists in //projecting// such a metric, which refers to a higher level of aggregation, onto a lower level. In this instance: by assuming that information we have about the city as a whole (the higher aggregation level) allows us to infer information about a neighbourhood (a much lower aggregation level), or even about //individuals// (the lowest possible aggregation level) from that city.

==== Delineation ====

Specific to this fallacy is that it relates to statistical metrics. In contrast, the similar [[generalization:mereological_fallacy|mereological fallacy]] applies to the relationship between a system as a whole and its (functional) components. Furthermore, the [[logic:emergence:division|fallacy of division]] refers specifically to transfers resulting from the phenomenon of [[glossary:emergence|emergence]]. 

It is not always easy to distinguish between all of these. There are often instances that could fall into several categories. In some sources, these fallacies are thus all simply treated as synonyms for each other. 

==== Classification ====

<aside todo>
**ToDo:** The categorisation of this fallacy in the classification scheme of this website is currently being reviewed. 
</aside>

===== Examples =====
==== Economic metrics ====

==== IQ differences between population groups ====

FIXME This article is still in preparation and thus incomplete.

===== See also =====

  * [[generalization:accident_fallacy|Accident fallacy]]
  * [[generalization:mereological_fallacy|Mereological fallacy]]
  * [[rhetorics:red_herrings:ad_hominem:guilt_by_association:nutpicking|Nutpicking]]
  * [[logic:emergence:division|Fallacy of Division]]


===== More information =====

  * [[wp>Ecological fallacy]] on //Wikipedia//
  * [[https://www.britannica.com/science/ecological-fallacy|Ecological fallacy]] on //Encyclopedia Britannica//
  * [[https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Ecological-Fallacy|Ecological Fallacy]] on //Logically Fallacious//

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