====== False cause (fallacy) ======

The mere co-occurrence of events or phenomena is mistakenly taken as evidence of a causal link between them, despite there being insufficient grounds for such a conclusion.

Example:

> Every morning, the sun rises after the rooster crows.
> <s invalid "false cause">Therefore, the sun rises //because// the rooster crows.</s>

While this conclusion is certainly flattering for the rooster, we know that the sun will rise regardless. It is more likely that the dawn wakes the cockerel, caused by the sun rising shortly afterwards (a reverse and indirect causal relationship), or that he is woken by a bodily function known as an "internal clock" (a spurious correlation), and then begins to crow.

===== Other names =====

  * <span "With this, therefore because of this"><i :la>Cum hoc ergo propter hoc</i></span> (Lat.: "with this, therefore because of this")
  * <span "After this, therefore because of this"><i :la>Post hoc ergo propter hoc</i></span> (Lat.: "after this, therefore because of this")
  * <span "No cause because of [this] cause"><i :la>Non causa pro causa</i></span> (Lat.: "no cause because of [this] cause")

===== Description =====

The term "false cause" is used here to refer to the //rational// yet //erroneous// inference of a causal relationship from an observed correlation. It covers the two fallacies usually described in Latin as "<span "With this, therefore because of this"><i :la>cum hoc ergo propter hoc</i></span>" and <span "After this, therefore because of this"><i :la>post hoc ergo propter hoc</i></span>.

The "[[psychology:kognitive_biases:causal_illusion|causal illusion]]", on the other hand, listed under "[[psychology:cognitive_biases:index|cognitive biases]]", refers to an //unconscious// psychological effect that makes phenomena that occur at the same time or one after the other appear to be //causally linked//.

In the context of "[[:mathematics:statistics:index|statistics]]", there is also the concept of "[[mathematics:statistics:misinterpretations:spurious correlation|Spurious correlations]]", which refers to statistical errors that make phenomena occurring together (that are "correlated") appear as if they have a causal relationship.

These three concepts are closely interlinked and may even simply be different perspectives on the same phenomenon.

===== Examples =====
==== Causal link between video games and violence ====


Occasionally, the media puts forward a correlative association between //violent video games// and //violent acts// carried out by young individuals. This could be outlined as follows:

> We are hearing more and more about acts of violence committed by young people.
> Young people are spending increasing amounts of time playing violent video games.
> <span conclusio>Therefore, <u questionable "possible false cause fallacy">it follows that violent video games //cause// violence.</u></span>

If one applies the possible explanations described in the article on [[glossary:causality|causality]] to this observation, the following possibilities emerge, which should be taken into account:

  - Increased consumption of violent video games desensitises young people, making them more likely to resort to violence (//direct// causal link).
  - The rise in violence in society leads to an increase in the consumption of video games, for example as a form of [[wp>Escapism|escapism]] (//reverse// causal relationship).
  - The internet is making computer games with an online connection increasingly attractive. At the same time, it is making it easier for perpetrators of violent crime to obtain weapons, instructions or encouragement from like-minded individuals (//external// causal link).
  - Playing violent video games sparks players’ interest in weapons and martial arts, which in turn leads them to be more inclined to resolve conflicts through violence (//indirect// causal link).
  - The increase in violence and the rise in video game consumption are two entirely unrelated phenomena with no causal link (//spurious correlation//).
  - Both //violent crime// and //preferred leisure activities// are highly complex social phenomena, which cannot be explained by simple (mono-)causal relationships, but are interconnected in various ways (<span maniculus "see:">[[causality:monocausality|fallacy of monocausality]]</span>).

It is neither possible nor appropriate to discuss here which of these explanations is the most probable. It is important, however, to note that a causal link cannot be inferred //solely// from the fact that the phenomena occur together.

==== Vaccination and mortality ====

A statistic circulated on social media in connection with the [[wp>COVID-19 pandemic|COVID-19 pandemic]], suggesting that the //mortality rate// in some regions correlated with the //number of vaccinations// administered there. This appeared to imply that the mortality was //causally linked// to vaccination.

As with the example above, it would be possible to enumerate all the potential links between the events here, but it is easy to see that the most likely explanation is that in a region where the number of infections in a region is high and hospitals are already overwhelmed, interest in vaccination is higher than in areas where the virus seems more like a remote issue.

If one were to express this as a rule of thumb, albeit an overly simplistic one, it might be expressed as: "Deaths are causingy vaccinations" (i.e. it is a //reversed// causal relationship).

===== See also =====

  * [[psychology:kognitive_biases:causal_illusion|Causal illusion]]
  * [[glossary:causality|Causality]]
  * [[mathematics:statistics:misinterpretations:spurious correlation|Spurious correlations]]

===== More information =====

  * [[wp>Correlation does not imply causation|Correlation does not imply causation]] on //Wikipedia//
  * <i :la>[[wp>Post hoc ergo propter hoc|Post hoc ergo propter hoc]]</i> on //Wikipedia//

  * [[https://www.fallacyfiles.org/noncause.html|Non Causa Pro Causa]] on //Fallacy Files//

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